Wall Street is asking how diet pills will affect consumer giants. But it may be too early to tell.

If you listen to the company’s third quarter earnings call, It may seem like everyone is taking diet pills.

Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo, Philip Morris International and Darden Restaurants These are just some of the companies facing questions from analysts about how these drugs are affecting their profits. Most executives brush off the effects. Some said it was too early to assess any real change. Hershey, Conagra and Nestle I am confident that investors will adapt if necessary.

While some analysts are making sweeping claims about how weight loss drugs will change the industries they cover, But the drug is still in its infancy. It is not yet clear how many people will be accepted. And how long will it take? Or what will be the long-term effects? It affects food manufacturers, restaurants, and other industries.

The drugs, known as GLP-1s, were first approved for diabetes. And now it is also used for obesity. Demand skyrocketed because Novo Nordisk could no longer produce enough Wegovy drugs to keep up.

But still Only a select few are actually taking the drug at this point, said Chris Shibutani, an analyst at Goldman Sachs.

Shibutani estimates that number could rise to 13% of the estimated 100 million obese Americans by the end of the decade. Sales are expected to be approximately $100 billion. The actual total may be higher or lower depending on a number of factors. This includes one extremely important factor: how long people remain on drugs.

That question “is very much at the forefront of thinking about market size. as well as what might be the key changes we see in other industries. that may be affected, such as the food and beverage industry, consumption, and even competition for reasonable spending and luxury goods,” Shibutani said.

A one-month supply of Wegovy costs approximately $1,400, and insurance coverage varies. This is prohibitively expensive for many potential users. Wegovy and similar drugs can cause unwanted side effects such as vomiting and diarrhea. This can cause some people to quit.

Only about a third of people who start taking drugs are still taking them a year later. According to information provided by RBC Capital Market That suggests that the drug’s impact on other industries may not be as widespread as some hope, said RBC analyst Brian Abrahams.

“Sometimes people think you have these drugs that seem like miracle cures, and what if 50 million or 100 million people took them and they all lost a quarter of their weight? What does that mean for all these sectors? The fact is that pharmaceutical products have refund limitations. Compliance And reality often ends up with values ​​that don’t exactly match,” Abrahams said.

Meanwhile The story is just beginning to unfold. Wegovy was approved two years ago.

Dozens of other weight-loss drugs are in development, and Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide is expected to be approved before the end of the year.

“Let’s see how these drugs play out as production progresses. The next generation of mechanisms will emerge. And the payer will make the decision,” Shibutani said. “For all practical purposes I think this theme will be with us for a while.”

CNBC’s Patrick Manning contributed to this report.